Think 2018 will be a year of correction
canada goose Anuj: Tell us what is happening in the market right now, is this one of those sharp bull market corrections or has something changed for equity markets? canada goose
canada goose store Agrawal: No, nothing has changed. Just that we had wonderful three years. So we had to give in reversion to mean. Why it comes? canada goose outlet nyc It finds its own reason, nobody knew this PNB scam will canada goose outlet black friday happen. You are the one who keeps finding out what are the risks, look at your own tape three four months back, you never mentioned that there could be a PNB scam. So the risk has a way to find we are all in the market place. Just that market was overextended in terms of valuation and earnings were not catching up, there were a lot of issues, so these are triggers for correction and if you see the correction, there are a lot of winners also in this period. There are a canada goose outlet shop lot of losers of course impacted by this scam and all but a lot of the stocks are doing well. canada goose store
canada goose black friday sale Good thing is that, at this point of time, lot of segments of the economy are firing well. canada goose black friday sale
canadian goose jacket Latha: That is the point, we have got that good index of industrial production (IIP) number. canadian goose jacket
buy canada goose jacket cheap Agrawal: Trade offtake which is a broader possible thing that has picked up. You will see the kind of boom that is automotive segment is going more particularly the high end commercial vehicles (CV) and all, so it is spreading. It will spread but valuation has already captured a lot of it. buy canada goose jacket cheap
Canada Goose Online Latha: That is what I was going to ask you. Even canada goose outlet just now we had Thermax’s Unnikrishnan speaking canada goose outlet toronto factory with us, saying that for the first time he is getting capex orders from consumers, from capital goods kind of companies as well as from infrastructure. So except for power, he said everything else is giving orders. It all that captured or at https://www.winterdownparkas.com least canada goose outlet parka will canada goose outlet store uk it put a bottom to the market? Canada Goose Online
Agrawal: There will be correction. It should better correct canada goose outlet sale and then we have this political headwind. People don’t talk enough about it but there are canada goose outlet online so many elections, I think four five major states are going through poll and every poll is considered as general election and then finally you have the big one in May.
Latha: After May, we don’t have Karnataka in May, after that there is a gap for about six months.
uk canada goose Agrawal: So it will allow the markets to recover. If you look at year on year, I think it will be a nice year of correction. Then the stage is set with the new government for whatever happens. uk canada goose
canada goose coats Sonia: You did say that sentiment goose outlet canada has been hit bank scam is something that nobody was prepared for but sentiment has been hit. What do you see as a solution, is there any solution to this mess? canada goose coats
Canada Goose Coats On Sale Agrawal: It is a political bosses who have to take the call but some of the low hanging fruit without doing canada goose factory outlet prioritisation very radical politically possible or not but even given constraint of HR canada goose black friday sale practices you have but why cannot you have a little younger guy or even the old guy but give him 5 10 years kind of tenure. Even State Bank of India (SBI) gets three years, two years kind of tenure, Arundhati Bhattacharya who just retired, has got three and a half years. Canada Goose Coats On Sale
Latha: That too after the extension, her original term was only two and a half years.
canada goose uk outlet Agrawal: So I think if you give five years at least and then another five because this is a crisis time at least this is a crisis solution, you give it to a good CEO and finding those many CEOs should not be that difficult. Of course everything is difficult but find the CEOs and give them five year tenure, canada goose outlet uk sale seven year tenure so they can plan something and execute. canada goose uk outlet
Canada Goose sale Anuj: canada goose outlet online uk You think this year is official canada goose outlet going to be tough. Last year of course we had the midcap index rallying for 44 45 percent, again canada goose outlet uk this year we could have negative on the index but still lot of stocks doing well? Canada Goose sale
buy canada goose jacket Agrawal: Stocks will definitely do well. That you cannot stop but when it comes to discussion on index, there are so many things going up and down. So I would think that plus minus 10 percent from here is a good number to get. buy canada goose jacket
cheap Canada Goose Anuj: You always say that look at the downside, upside will take canada goose outlet new york city care of canada goose outlet reviews itself, so what is the downside? cheap Canada Goose
Agrawal: Downside is 10 percent.
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Canada Goose Parka Agrawal: I would think so. One should be prepared for that much and with a high probability that much NAV loss in your portfolio should happen even if it is a very well managed portfolio. Canada Goose Parka
canada goose coats on sale Sonia: You spoke about signs of the pick up that we are seeing in terms of the IIP data and the auto etc, how do you play on this theme, capex cycle recovery and how will that result in terms of earnings recovery as well? canada goose coats on sale
Agrawal: One is the market. So we don’t look at the market. We look at our portfolio. So portfolio will keep buying what we think is right. So if we think that okay, there is a massive boom picking up in commercial vehicles (CV), so we will see if we can find some inclusion in our portfolio is that 3 4 percent position left, we will buy one of the canada canada goose outlet goose outlet canada commercial vehicle companies. There are not too many, India is blessed with number one is always 50 percent and number two is 25 30 percent. So you have a good chance of picking up a leader in canada goose outlet in usa this kind of situation. So you buy one of them and then go on to see, is there anything else which is looking very good. So for canada goose outlet jackets segment like in the entire automotive, we might be having 20 25 percent allocation. So it may change 4 5 percent.
Latha: The NBFC space itself was the big leader of last year. This year will things get very tough? We have seen the stock market tell you that margins are under pressure but how will it likely pan out?
Mistry: My sense is interest rates have gone up and that is very obvious but at the same time you have got people look at interest rates the way they are today and compare it the way interest rates were 6 12 months ago, but if you look two years back, actually interest rates are lower than what they were two years ago. Interest rates in India started coming down from July 2016 and then in a big way post demonetisation in November 2016. So any liability today, for example for NBFC which is maturing which is two years old that liability is replaced at a canada goose outlet store cost which is lower than the original cost, but if it is a one year liability, if it’s a short term liability and that is getting replaced today then that is getting replaced at a higher rate. So it depends on the asset liability profile of each NBFC.